National Pundit Upgrades the Reelection Chances of Two Florida Republican Congressmen

A prominent national organization has upgraded the chances of two Republican congressmen who are running for reelection in Florida.

Last week, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics unveiled its latest look at the 2020 U.S. House races. In its latest “Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” the center kept Democrats as the favorites to retain control of the House but gave a boost in almost a dozen races to Republicans looking to keep seats in the GOP column.

In his look at the House races, Kyle Kondik upgraded the reelection chances of both U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., noting they “occupy districts that are GOP-leaning but competitive” and added they did not face “particularly hard races in the bad Republican year of 2018.”

Both Diaz-Balart and Mast moved from districts that were “likely Republican” to “safe Republican.”

While those two districts have been taken off the board–at least for the moment–Kondik kept two GOP held seats in the Sunshine State on the watch list. U.S. Rep. Ross Spano, R-Fla., is in a race pegged as “leans Republican” while U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., is in a “likely Republican” contest.

According to Kondik and the Center for Politics, the GOP has three pickup opportunities in Florida. U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., is in a district considered “leans Democratic” while U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, D-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Donna Shalala, D-Fla., are in “likely Democratic” races.


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