Even as Democratic presidential candidates debate in Atlanta, a high profile contender is sticking his toes in the 2020 waters.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is making the effort to qualify for the primary ballot in multiple states with early deadlines. Will he run? Bloomberg won’t say for sure but Vegas is certainly taken notice.
Sascha Paruk is the lead oddsmaker at Sports Betting Dime and weighed in on the possible candidate.
“The market currently has him at +2100 to actually win the next presidential election, and +1200 to win the Democratic nomination,” Paruk noted.
That means if someone bets a dollar on Bloomberg to be the next president and he ends up in the White House, the better could win $21 and $12 if he wins the Democratic primary. That’s an 8 percent chance for Bloomberg to be the Democratic nominee and a 4.5 percent chance to be president.
Paruk thinks Bloomberg has an uphill climb.
“I think his standing among minorities is going to severely hamper his ability to even win the Democratic nomination,” Paruk said.
Bloomberg was the architect of the stop and frisk policy in New York City that was wildly unpopular with minorities. He has since admitted it was the wrong thing to do and apologized, but the question remains if it is too late to repair the damage. Meanwhile, odds on other candidates are changing rapidly as the race intensifies.
“If you had gotten your money in on Warren at 20-1, you would be laughing because right now she is the outright favorite. She is about +225 or +250 which is about 5 to 2 (bet one dollar, win $2.25). She’s followed by Joe Biden at +360, and then the big mover lately is Pete Buttigieg. Two weeks ago, he was +700 and now he is all the way down to +485,” Paruk told Florida Daily with a reminder that the favorites–like Jeb Bush in the 2016 cycle–are not always the best bets.
“You see a lot of fluctuations in political futures from week to week and month to month even when you are this far out from the election because sportsbooks are always adjusting their futures lines based on the wagers they are taking and where they anticipate where the money will be going to protect themselves against risk,” Paruk added.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump looms large over gambling on politics.
“Certainly the name Trump pervades the news, and the more something is in the news, the better it is for sportsbooks,” Partuk said.
Partuk is expecting a large amount of money to be wagered on the general election since Trump is involved. Gambling odds have been set for a while now on whether the president would be impeached. Those lines steadily came down as Congress considered hearings.
“Once it started, I believe that sportsbooks took down those odds. It was across the board, they just disappeared. Not a single sportsbook left them up because I think they began to see impeachment as almost a foregone conclusion, ” Partuk said.
One sportsbook has left impeachment odds up, changing the bet from “will the president be impeached” to “will the president be impeached and removed from office?”
There are still long odds that Trump will be removed. If someone was to bet Trump will not be removed from office, the gamvbler would have to bet $2.50 to win a dollar.
Reach Mike Synan at firstname.lastname@example.org.