With the polls showing most voters don’t want to see a Donald Trump – Joe Biden rematch this year, third-party groups see an opportunity to capitalize on the polling numbers.
The No Labels group is now on 16 state ballots, including Florida. And will decide sometime in March who they may lean to as a presidential candidate.
RFK Jr’s Super Pac now says they have collected enough signatures to get him on two battleground states Arizona and Georgia, in this year’s election.
If Kennedy doesn’t run as an Independent, he most likely will run as a libertarian candidate.
The Libertarian Party was able to get on the ballots in all 50 states in 2016 and 2020, but no word yet for 2024.
While Republicans downplay Kennedy as a spoiler, political analysts say the GOP should heed the warning that RFK Jr. could take votes away from Trump, especially in states like Arizona and Georgia, where Trump barely lost. Democrats are suing to keep Kennedy off the ballot in states like Florida and others.
In 2023, some polling data showed Kennedy running as a third-party candidate would hurt both Trump and Biden. In October of last year, a New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters in Arizona showed Kennedy with 26% support, with Biden and Trump earning 33% each. Another poll in Georgia showed Kennedy with 24%, trailing Trump at 36% with Biden at 29%.
A recent poll from Quinnipiac sees a shift from Democrats supporting Biden, going to a third party. In a 2024 presidential matchup, President Biden leads Trump 49-45%. But when throwing RFK Jr. into the mix, Biden’s lead dropped to 38-37% over Trump, with Kennedy getting 15% of the vote.
Last week, a Marquette Law School national poll found Trump leading Biden 51-49%, but when you added RFK Jr., Trump received 42% over Biden 39%. Kennedy gets 15%. But this poll showed Kennedy pulling more voters away from Republicans than Democrats.
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