The Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy just released its first set of polls for the upcoming Florida 2024 election.

Florida voters laid out their top two issues, inflation/lowering the cost of living (23%) and solving the insurance crisis (21%) followed by combatting illegal immigration (14%), lowering housing costs (10%), and safeguarding access to abortion (10%).

On voting rolls by party, as of November 30, 2023, the current statewide voter registration shows 13,541,633 total registered voters in Florida. Republicans lead with 5,159,681 (38%) followed by Democrats with 4,460,829 (33%) and Independents with 3,921,123 (29%).

In a general election, Florida voters said they would prefer a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat candidate 46%-40%, with 14% of the voters undecided.

But the cause of concern for the GOP was that Independents preferred a generic Democrat candidate over a generic Republican candidate by a 39%-28% margin.

While the Florida Democratic Party has moved more to the left over the last 20 years, self-identified state Democratic described themselves as less liberal and more moderate.

Twenty-two percent of Democrats identify as “very liberal,” and 34% of Democrats identify as being “moderate.”

A plurality of state GOP identified themselves as being more conservative. 37% of Republicans identify as “very conservative,” with 19% of Republicans identify as “moderate.

AIF’s poll shows the GOP performs better than Democrats on a multitude of issues facing the state. The economy (44%-22%), crime (39%-15%) and education (35%-28%).

An area where voters give Democrats a thumbs up over the Republicans is on healthcare (37%-18%).

On the top issues of inflation and getting property insurance costs under control, the AIF poll found that a majority of voters (55%) believe neither party is doing an effective job.

Some observers think if the voters don’t see positive results from the state-controlled GOP House and Senate, Independents could lean toward Democrats in the 2024 general election.

“We’re seeing an interesting trend throughout the state where Independent voters are skewing more Democratic than Republican,” said AIF VP of Political Operations Jeremy Sheftel.

Sheftel says as the election season gets closer, it will be important to monitor this trend to gauge which way Independents will break come Election Day.

The latest numbers by AIF show that in 2023, Hispanic voters registered as Republican (32%) compared to Democrat (25%); however, a plurality (43%) registered as Independent.  Republicans also out-registered their Democratic counterparts across all age brackets and media markets, with the biggest margin coming in the 55-64 age bracket and the Tampa media market.

–