With the Ukrainian crisis continuing to escalate on Tuesday, the two top candidates in Florida’s U.S. Senate race weighed in on it.
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who sits on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, took to the national airwaves on Tuesday morning to talk about the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Rubio appeared on “Fox and Friends” on Fox News and said Russian leader Vladimir Putin was relying on “false pretenses” to invade Ukraine.
“I read the English translation of his speech — it was long, so I took excerpts of it,” Rubio said of Putin. “He went through these long, ridiculous history lessons. But at the end of the day, what he was arguing was that there are areas that these two groups, these pro-Russian puppet groups, claim that Kyiv currently possesses. It’s not just the areas that [the Russian groups are] controlling, it’s areas that Ukraine controls. And they claim those. They are going to move on those. And when they move on those, if Kyiv doesn’t give it up, Putin is going to say, ‘Well, this violates our mutual defense agreement,’ and they are going to go to war against Kyiv in a broader assault.
“That’s [Putin’s] plan, that’s what he’s setting up, and that’s what they are going to do. He’s not gonna stop with these two little small areas near his border. You don’t need 200,000 troops with all that armor and air power and sea power to simply occupy two areas where you’ve already had a strong separatist presence for a long time,” Rubio added.
Rubio also offered his take on how Putin sees the Biden administration.
“[Putin] sees conventional politicians. He understands conventional American politics, he’s been an observer of it for a long time. Vladimir Putin basically believes that it doesn’t matter who the president is, the American bureaucracy is what controls the government. Now, he may have had a different opinion when Donald Trump was in office because [Trump] was not a conventional politician, but I think he knows how to deal with someone like Joe Biden because he’s been dealing with presidents like that that operate within the confines of orthodoxy for a long time, and he knows exactly how they are going to react,” Rubio said.
“People forget our presidents come and go, [but] Putin’s been there pretty consistently for almost over 20 years. So no, I don’t think he is thinking about or worrying about Joe Biden in the next moves he makes,” Rubio added. “He knew this is exactly how [the Biden administration] would react. If you read what the White House was telling reporters last night, they were saying, ‘Well, Russia is only moving into areas that they have already been in. In essence, they are just doing openly what they’ve been doing secretly for 2.5 years. So that’s not as big a deal.’ This is silly, but [Putin] knows it and he’s playing them.
“By the time he does move on the rest of [Ukraine], it will be too late. He knows if he does this big move, as I believe he will, this is going to increase oil prices maybe $110 or $115 a barrel for some period of time. It’s going to be [a] massive disruption to the global economy. Eventually, OPEC will react, I imagine, and try to make up for it, but not immediately,” Rubio continued. “Part of [Putin’s] calculus – no doubt about it – is that the U.S. has pulled back from oil and natural gas exploration — it’s [been made] harder under the Biden Administration. We went from being a net exporter for the first time ever, I believe, in 2018 to once again kind of falling back in our production because we want more renewables, wind, solar, and the like. That’s one of the things [Putin has] calculated.
“Biden’s energy policy is one of the things that has encouraged Putin that now is the time to do it. Because it increases oil prices, which helps him. He also knows how vulnerable that makes Europe and other countries. And he believes they won’t be able to sustain these sanctions against Russia for long because of that,” Rubio said.
Rubio also warned that a Russia-Ukraine clash will increase gas prices.
“When gas prices go up and fuel prices go up, it increases prices all across the board, because everything we buy and sell has to be transported by something that’s burning gas or diesel,” Rubio said. “Ukraine is one of the world’s largest producers of neon gas, which is critical to the semiconductor industry. Ninety percent of the neon gas used by our semiconductor manufacturers in the United States depends on neon gas from Ukraine. If that’s disrupted, it’s really going to hurt that industry here in the United States. They are also a huge producer of agriculture. Number four in wheat and number five in corn in the world. That’s going to raise global food prices which will impact us as well.
“Any time countries are cut off from a current source, they become your competitors in the global market for those goods which increases prices on everybody. We already have out-of-control prices. This is going to add to that,” he added.
Rubio also offered his take on what Biden should have done.
“I think now we are stuck with less options, but if someone else would have been [president] earlier, they would have said, ‘What is Russia’s leverage over Europe? It’s energy. Let’s ramp up energy production right now. What’s their leverage over Ukraine? It’s their ability to move quickly and tale property. Let’s speed up the amount of defensive weaponry we provide them. Let’s help them start setting up on a more rapid scale,” Rubio said. “This may have snuck up on the news, but intelligence has been warning about this for over nine months. We should have been preparing for this and preparing for their insurgency months ago. I think now one of the things we need to do is basically have a plan in place to recognize legitimate Ukrainian government, whether they are in Kiev, Lviv, or across the border in Poland – wherever they are in the world – we need a legitimate Ukrainian government that we can provide assistance and help to. One thing is to invade and another is to occupy and hold. We need to make this as long, as painful, and costly for Vladimir Putin as anything possible. Another Vietnam for him, another Afghanistan. If we don’t do that, he will do more of this in the future.”
Rubio also warned that Russia could launch cyberattacks against the U.S.
“[Cyber attacks are] very difficult to defend against. We can do anything to [the Russians] they can do to us. I just think they’re willing to do things that we’re not willing to do. But I would add one more thing: it’s a very imprecise weapon. You may think you are knocking out a pipeline, but it may turn out to be something much broader and more catastrophic. And that’s one thing to keep an eye on,” Rubio said. “No one has ever conducted a broad cyber war. We’ve had cyber skirmishes, cyber-attacks, but never cyber warfare. There is no doctrine and there is no rule for how you engage in this, and frankly, no one knows what’s going to happen when you start on that road. It could escalate pretty quickly. That is something to really be concerned about. I have been concerned about it, raising the specter of it, because I do think that cyber could rapidly escalate to something far more dangerous, including, unfortunately, kinetic military confrontation, if you run out of cyber options…. We should seek to avoid going down that road of escalation.”
Also on Tuesday, Rubio appeared on “CBS Mornings.”
“These so-called ‘breakaway regions’ and the people who run them, they don’t just claim the area they currently possess, they claim areas that are currently under the power of Kyiv,” Rubio told CBS. “What’s going to happen is that Russia is going to send in troops into areas those two separatist regions control, and they’re going to move in on areas Kyiv controls because they’re claiming them too. And when Kyiv fights back, they’re going to say that triggers their mutual defense agreement that Putin signed yesterday with this fake new country, and he’s going to move in with those areas as well.
“I think he takes basically the entire east of the country, and I think he’ll try to take Kyiv. I think the Ukrainians are going to fight back. But this is going to have an impact on Americans even though it seems really far away,” Rubio said.
Rubio talked about the impact on sanctions on Russia.
“I don’t believe the sanctions are going to stop them from doing their plan, but if you [Putin] don’t pay a price for doing this, he’s going to do more of it. If you listen to that speech yesterday, the argument he used for invading Ukraine, you could make that argument about any of the Baltic states who are now all members of NATO. Many of those Baltic states were part of the old Russian Empire even longer than Ukraine,” Rubio said. “He’s not going to stop with Ukraine if he’s allowed. He must pay a big price for it, but we’ve got to return to our own domestic energy production as a matter of national security now. Because Russia and this disruption that this is going to create is going to increase oil prices and we’re going to feel that at the pump in America. That will increase prices on everything because everything we buy and sell is transported by something burning gas or diesel.”
Asked how a Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact the U.S., Rubio offered some ways it could.
“I’ll focus on four things. The first is the price of oil. If the price of oil goes up to 110, 115 dollars a barrel, we’re going to feel that at the pump,” Rubio said. “The second thing is, Ukraine is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers, the fourth largest in wheat, the fifth largest in corn. [An invasion of Ukraine] is going to raise global food prices, which eventually impacts us, because when somebody gets cut off from [Ukrainian supplies], they become our competitors in the global market for food costs.
“The third is, Ukraine is the world’s leading producer of neon gas, which is critical to the production of semiconductors. 90 percent of the neon gas used to make semiconductors in America – which we have a shortage of already – comes from Ukraine. If that’s disrupted or cut off, we are going to struggle. I remember back in 2014, when [Russia invaded Crimea], it increased the prices of semiconductors, and you can see now where that’s playing out in our economy,” he continued. “[The fourth is] our space industry. We still depend on Russia for key components of many of our commercial launches. [If Russian imports are cut off], you could begin to see launches scrapped, things that are critical to both national security and also our commercial viability.”
Rubio also criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis.
“They should have treated [yesterday’s announcement] as a full-scale invasion. I hope that’s what they’ll do today. Last night they seemed to indicate moving into areas controlled by separatists is public acknowledgment of what’s already true. I didn’t think that was an appropriate response,” Rubio said. “Beyond that, one of the things that gave Putin the belief that now’s the time to act is global oil prices. And the decision in the United States to make it harder to do global and gas exploration has contributed to those higher prices which, in turn, has empowered [the Russians]. In an ironic way, even though this crisis is going to create higher oil prices, it benefits Putin. And it’s his leverage. He believes the Europeans, who depend on him heavily, will not be able to sustain sanctions for long because of energy prices. It was a big mistake to make it harder to do exploration. We became energy independent in 2019. We need to go back to that.”
Rubio also weighed in on the likelihood of a conflict between Russia and the U.S.
“It shouldn’t [come to that], because a war between the U.S. and Russia is not going to be good for anybody. These are the world’s two largest nuclear powers and that’s one of the things, even as we are firm in our response, we have to try everything possible to avoid, because it can escalate very quickly,” Rubio said. “We are not the world’s policeman. We’re not sending troops into Ukraine, but our number one priority is our national interest. Our national interest is impacted by what is happening there, and I outlined some of the reasons why.
“If COVID taught us anything, it’s that something that starts halfway around the world can reach Main Street America pretty quickly. Obviously, this is not at that scale, but it’s important enough to care about it,” he added.
Rubio also offered his take on what Americans can do during the conflict.
“First of all, pray for your leaders and pray for Ukraine, that people make some wise choices.
“This is a moment of high tension, because there is the danger of escalation. I think Russia is going to respond with cyber [at] some level, which, in turn, would require a response from us. And you fear that escalation could lead to…active combat, which would be just incredibly dangerous,” Rubio said. “This is a very tense and dangerous moment. You have NATO fully mobilized, you have the largest land army since World War II amassed by the Russians. They are operating within very close proximity of one another. So this is a moment of high tension, it’s a moment for some sobriety. We have to respond strong, but we also have to be smart at the same time and avoid unnecessary and needless escalation. Because that would become catastrophic.”
On the other side of the aisle, U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., the favorite to win her party’s nomination to challenge Rubio in November, also weighed in on the crisis on Tuesday.
“A career in law enforcement taught me that the only thing a bully understands is strength. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an outrage. It is unprovoked, the act of a coward, despite attempts by Russia to falsely manufacture an excuse for war. Now, we must show President Putin our nation’s unwavering resolve, and impose the toughest sanctions in history against the Russian government, oligarchs, and enablers of the so-called ‘independent’ states in Ukraine’s sovereign territory,” Demings said.
“We must keep Americans in the region safe, prevent further escalation, and work with our European allies to support the Ukrainian people with arms and humanitarian assistance. Putin and his corrupt regime must pay a personal price for the lives that he is taking and the chaos he is causing. The German government’s decision to halt Nord Stream 2 is just the beginning. I have led efforts in Congress to target Putin, the oligarchs who support him, and their criminal financial networks. I call on Congress and the administration to continue these efforts. Russia’s corrupt leaders must face the penalties for starting a war of conquest,” she added.
